election_tracker.utf8.md

Live Results

As of 2:05 PM, 277 voters in 33 wards have shared their voter number. I estimate that 220,454 people have voted in person across the city (95% Confidence Interval: 181,517 - 234,729). In addition, more than 346,196 mail-in ballots have already been returned*, and 89,200 are still outstanding.

NOTE: The above mail counts are copied from the state data. There is a lag in the returned mail-ins showing up in that data. Some mail-ins that have already arrived are probably not included. In addition, all ballots postmarked today that arrive by 11/6 will be counted, as long as the Supreme Court does not interfere.

Maps

I use historic correlations among divisions’ turnout to estimate turnout in the divisions with no data yet. I simultaneously estimate (1) the overall city-wide turnout, (2) divisions’ over-/under-performance, and (3) the city-wide time pattern of voting. See the Methodology.

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In)

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In) vs 2016

In-Person Turnout

Mail-In Requests

Mail-In Ballots Returned

Raw Responses (for debugging)

Submissions

Data Tables

For those of you who like tables with numbers.

**Estimated Turnout by Ward**

ward	time_of_day	turnout	turnout_p025	turnout_p975

01	2:05 PM	3151	c(`2.5%` = 2831)	c(`97.5%` = 3483)
02	2:05 PM	4925	c(`2.5%` = 4383)	c(`97.5%` = 5479)
03	2:05 PM	2953	c(`2.5%` = 2368)	c(`97.5%` = 3347)
04	2:05 PM	2920	c(`2.5%` = 2215)	c(`97.5%` = 3310)
05	2:05 PM	7181	c(`2.5%` = 6371)	c(`97.5%` = 8087)
06	2:05 PM	1972	c(`2.5%` = 1579)	c(`97.5%` = 2151)
07	2:05 PM	1811	c(`2.5%` = 1180)	c(`97.5%` = 2103)
08	2:05 PM	6618	c(`2.5%` = 5969)	c(`97.5%` = 7556)
09	2:05 PM	3360	c(`2.5%` = 2854)	c(`97.5%` = 3905)
10	2:05 PM	4322	c(`2.5%` = 3293)	c(`97.5%` = 4884)
11	2:05 PM	1876	c(`2.5%` = 1406)	c(`97.5%` = 2186)
12	2:05 PM	3217	c(`2.5%` = 2548)	c(`97.5%` = 3579)
13	2:05 PM	2906	c(`2.5%` = 2307)	c(`97.5%` = 3298)
14	2:05 PM	1258	c(`2.5%` = 1024)	c(`97.5%` = 1373)
15	2:05 PM	3548	c(`2.5%` = 3095)	c(`97.5%` = 3991)
16	2:05 PM	1554	c(`2.5%` = 1139)	c(`97.5%` = 1825)
17	2:05 PM	3571	c(`2.5%` = 2866)	c(`97.5%` = 4052)
18	2:05 PM	3024	c(`2.5%` = 2543)	c(`97.5%` = 3384)
19	2:05 PM	1470	c(`2.5%` = 1043)	c(`97.5%` = 1638)
20	2:05 PM	1358	c(`2.5%` = 1087)	c(`97.5%` = 1506)
21	2:05 PM	7849	c(`2.5%` = 6758)	c(`97.5%` = 8659)
22	2:05 PM	4589	c(`2.5%` = 3560)	c(`97.5%` = 5274)
23	2:05 PM	2575	c(`2.5%` = 2082)	c(`97.5%` = 2812)
24	2:05 PM	2147	c(`2.5%` = 1779)	c(`97.5%` = 2384)
25	2:05 PM	2051	c(`2.5%` = 1552)	c(`97.5%` = 2403)
26	2:05 PM	3062	c(`2.5%` = 2507)	c(`97.5%` = 3305)
27	2:05 PM	3347	c(`2.5%` = 2211)	c(`97.5%` = 4576)
28	2:05 PM	1665	c(`2.5%` = 1203)	c(`97.5%` = 1971)
29	2:05 PM	1647	c(`2.5%` = 1385)	c(`97.5%` = 1805)
30	2:05 PM	3141	c(`2.5%` = 2626)	c(`97.5%` = 3566)
31	2:05 PM	2647	c(`2.5%` = 2108)	c(`97.5%` = 3011)
32	2:05 PM	2711	c(`2.5%` = 2012)	c(`97.5%` = 3052)
33	2:05 PM	2105	c(`2.5%` = 1424)	c(`97.5%` = 2420)
34	2:05 PM	6042	c(`2.5%` = 4916)	c(`97.5%` = 6596)
35	2:05 PM	3913	c(`2.5%` = 3124)	c(`97.5%` = 4316)
36	2:05 PM	4911	c(`2.5%` = 4098)	c(`97.5%` = 5262)
37	2:05 PM	1748	c(`2.5%` = 1291)	c(`97.5%` = 2018)
38	2:05 PM	2971	c(`2.5%` = 2552)	c(`97.5%` = 3219)
39	2:05 PM	5862	c(`2.5%` = 5054)	c(`97.5%` = 6454)
40	2:05 PM	6093	c(`2.5%` = 4789)	c(`97.5%` = 6520)
41	2:05 PM	2363	c(`2.5%` = 1797)	c(`97.5%` = 2704)
42	2:05 PM	3004	c(`2.5%` = 2311)	c(`97.5%` = 3261)
43	2:05 PM	2379	c(`2.5%` = 1744)	c(`97.5%` = 2660)
44	2:05 PM	1960	c(`2.5%` = 1481)	c(`97.5%` = 2216)
45	2:05 PM	2611	c(`2.5%` = 2030)	c(`97.5%` = 3020)
46	2:05 PM	3723	c(`2.5%` = 3129)	c(`97.5%` = 4163)
47	2:05 PM	1157	c(`2.5%` = 932)	c(`97.5%` = 1234)
48	2:05 PM	2693	c(`2.5%` = 2182)	c(`97.5%` = 2906)
49	2:05 PM	3522	c(`2.5%` = 2745)	c(`97.5%` = 3828)
50	2:05 PM	5078	c(`2.5%` = 3890)	c(`97.5%` = 5858)
51	2:05 PM	3176	c(`2.5%` = 2546)	c(`97.5%` = 3584)
52	2:05 PM	3972	c(`2.5%` = 3187)	c(`97.5%` = 4516)
53	2:05 PM	2639	c(`2.5%` = 2053)	c(`97.5%` = 2961)
54	2:05 PM	1855	c(`2.5%` = 1320)	c(`97.5%` = 2186)
55	2:05 PM	3068	c(`2.5%` = 2331)	c(`97.5%` = 3491)
56	2:05 PM	4469	c(`2.5%` = 3537)	c(`97.5%` = 5058)
57	2:05 PM	3876	c(`2.5%` = 3152)	c(`97.5%` = 4317)
58	2:05 PM	6405	c(`2.5%` = 5124)	c(`97.5%` = 7290)
59	2:05 PM	3429	c(`2.5%` = 2751)	c(`97.5%` = 3759)
60	2:05 PM	2735	c(`2.5%` = 2211)	c(`97.5%` = 3050)
61	2:05 PM	4062	c(`2.5%` = 3127)	c(`97.5%` = 4326)
62	2:05 PM	2826	c(`2.5%` = 2097)	c(`97.5%` = 3232)
63	2:05 PM	3731	c(`2.5%` = 3174)	c(`97.5%` = 4119)
64	2:05 PM	2103	c(`2.5%` = 1655)	c(`97.5%` = 2356)
65	2:05 PM	3097	c(`2.5%` = 2552)	c(`97.5%` = 3393)
66	2:05 PM	6452	c(`2.5%` = 5327)	c(`97.5%` = 7111)

Raw Submissions

**Submitted Data**

Time of Vote	Precinct	Voter Number

7:10 AM	5107	2
7:41 AM	0537	24
7:42 AM	0501	14
7:43 AM	0828	33
7:03 AM	2714	2
7:40 AM	1508	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:25 AM	0214	16
7:56 AM	3636	33
7:13 AM	0218	9
8:07 AM	4603	27
8:16 AM	0218	60
8:18 AM	0222	68
8:10 AM	1810	36
8:20 AM	3635	57
8:30 AM	3110	55
8:32 AM	0532	69
8:30 AM	2707	45
8:32 AM	2702	48
8:15 AM	3901	52
8:15 AM	3640	64
8:38 AM	3638	55
8:38 AM	3637	31
8:42 AM	0525	64
8:40 AM	0501	36
7:30 AM	0202	28
8:40 AM	0537	56
8:12 AM	4616	41
8:35 AM	3909	65
8:43 AM	0517	69
8:49 AM	0834	73
8:49 AM	0206	69
8:50 AM	0828	77
8:07 AM	0801	40
7:30 AM	3640	31
7:30 AM	3104	29
8:50 AM	0213	25
8:40 AM	2717	56
8:45 AM	2101	47
8:25 AM	3945	52
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
9:02 AM	1503	92
7:15 AM	0902	12
8:40 AM	2717	56
7:01 AM	0807	13
9:09 AM	4701	73
8:50 AM	0213	25
9:10 AM	1514	81
7:55 AM	1517	30
9:00 AM	3914	40
8:00 AM	5702	60
8:30 AM	2105	91
8:30 AM	2105	91
9:15 AM	2714	51
8:15 AM	2605	56
9:20 AM	3637	100
9:20 AM	3638	79
8:30 AM	0521	92
9:20 AM	0532	112
9:15 AM	1802	73
9:24 AM	2911	62
9:03 AM	0229	95
9:23 AM	0812	138
8:50 AM	0828	77
9:00 AM	3107	100
9:15 AM	3639	86
9:15 AM	0120	76
9:30 AM	0308	109
9:30 AM	0807	98
9:25 AM	3610	84
9:34 AM	0818	50
9:34 AM	0818	50
9:35 AM	0817	107
8:40 AM	1514	68
8:00 AM	0106	69
8:40 AM	1514	68
9:38 AM	6008	49
9:30 AM	3636	108
7:15 AM	0114	9
9:46 AM	3111	104
9:47 AM	0204	72
9:50 AM	0505	92
9:55 AM	0528	148
9:45 AM	0224	110
9:45 AM	0224	109
7:45 AM	0517	35
9:58 AM	3636	120
9:49 AM	2212	74
8:00 AM	0817	100
10:05 AM	1503	129
10:02 AM	0517	135
8:15 AM	3516	56
7:20 AM	2217	17
8:15 AM	3516	56
7:40 AM	2105	45
10:00 AM	0110	97
9:40 AM	0222	97
10:00 AM	2622	82
10:03 AM	3006	101
8:15 AM	2619	77
10:02 AM	0835	100
10:18 AM	3104	156
10:20 AM	4701	114
7:45 AM	0516	41
10:18 AM	0515	420
8:28 AM	0516	70
9:50 AM	0505	92
10:15 AM	3641	78
9:50 AM	0505	92
10:29 AM	0509	188
10:30 AM	1513	95
8:00 AM	2113	13
10:39 AM	0537	108
10:40 AM	0501	75
10:15 AM	3115	144
10:10 AM	4603	60
9:45 AM	1517	101
10:40 AM	0206	115
10:42 AM	0505	117
10:44 AM	0834	93
9:30 AM	0807	98
10:45 AM	0807	115
10:45 AM	1503	147
10:45 AM	0309	129
10:40 AM	3629	76
10:52 AM	1717	90
10:52 AM	1717	90
7:30 AM	1802	38
10:50 AM	2706	156
10:45 AM	2713	96
10:02 AM	4622	131
11:00 AM	2707	86
11:10 AM	3113	101
8:30 AM	0201	103
8:40 AM	0824	57
11:07 AM	6008	67
8:00 AM	4601	37
11:00 AM	2208	91
9:00 AM	0822	1
11:00 AM	2101	131
10:00 AM	0101	79
10:00 AM	0102	90
10:00 AM	0103	136
10:00 AM	0104	92
10:00 AM	0105	45
10:00 AM	0106	93
10:00 AM	0107	40
10:00 AM	0108	89
10:00 AM	0109	83
10:00 AM	0110	104
10:00 AM	0111	86
10:00 AM	0112	69
10:00 AM	0113	122
10:00 AM	0114	85
10:00 AM	0115	139
10:00 AM	0116	68
10:00 AM	0117	79
10:00 AM	0118	121
10:00 AM	0119	75
10:00 AM	0120	106
10:00 AM	0121	130
11:17 AM	3943	119
11:00 AM	1811	150
11:18 AM	4701	135
11:00 AM	3103	5
11:15 AM	0526	175
11:00 AM	5904	142
8:30 AM	0504	105
11:22 AM	1503	156
9:02 AM	0120	63
8:10 AM	0819	60
11:29 AM	0213	47
9:15 AM	0904	69
11:30 AM	3914	140
11:30 AM	4920	110
10:00 AM	3945	156
11:00 AM	0102	111
11:00 AM	0108	105
11:00 AM	0109	89
11:00 AM	0107	54
11:30 AM	0833	124
11:00 AM	0104	120
7:50 AM	4622	31
11:00 AM	0105	47
11:30 AM	1810	140
11:39 AM	0834	106
11:32 AM	0116	99
11:43 AM	0537	122
11:43 AM	0501	99
11:45 AM	2702	88
11:40 AM	4808	118
11:53 AM	0528	194
11:45 AM	1815	121
11:45 AM	1816	192
11:45 AM	1817	193
11:45 AM	0217	111
11:50 AM	3610	112
11:50 AM	0217	112
12:00 PM	3637	153
12:00 PM	3638	118
9:40 AM	0218	88
12:05 PM	0110	127
9:20 AM	0803	123
9:22 AM	0803	125
11:00 AM	0209	104
7:22 AM	0506	9
12:01 PM	0101	96
12:01 PM	0103	164
12:00 PM	2125	127
12:01 PM	0107	69
12:01 PM	0110	127
12:01 PM	0114	128
12:01 PM	0115	191
12:01 PM	0117	175
12:01 PM	0119	166
12:15 PM	1503	175
12:01 PM	0121	160
10:00 AM	2702	65
12:15 PM	4903	216
7:01 AM	1511	17
12:02 PM	0526	182
12:29 PM	3103	175
12:29 PM	3113	151
10:47 AM	1507	1
12:38 PM	1716	80
11:00 AM	6522	121
12:38 PM	0528	208
12:38 PM	0528	208
11:00 AM	0120	127
12:23 PM	6008	80
7:40 AM	6509	22
8:00 AM	4618	32
12:50 PM	0525	121
12:02 PM	0831	123
12:30 PM	3007	161
12:30 PM	5217	120
12:55 PM	4002	146
7:25 AM	0532	35
12:40 PM	0529	58
1:04 PM	1902	128
1:05 PM	1903	72
1:05 PM	1904	81
1:02 PM	2702	100
1:12 PM	0834	113
8:20 AM	0810	66
12:29 PM	3113	151
1:00 PM	3609	112
7:01 AM	2122	20
1:20 PM	1514	117
1:25 PM	3006	141
1:30 PM	3914	175
1:29 PM	4320	120
1:30 PM	0517	194
11:10 AM	3105	1
1:30 PM	2701	119
7:45 AM	4616	34
9:15 AM	4125	74
1:43 PM	1717	115
1:43 PM	0537	130
1:45 PM	0817	166
8:30 AM	2605	76
1:43 PM	0501	133
1:45 PM	0818	88
1:43 PM	1717	115
10:40 AM	1510	121
1:45 PM	1810	188
1:48 PM	3943	160
1:51 PM	3637	170
1:52 PM	3638	137
1:45 PM	1817	238
2:00 PM	3103	194
9:00 AM	2719	1
2:05 PM	4701	166
1:45 PM	2911	109
8:00 AM	0510	63

Download the csvs: - Raw Submissions - Division Predictions

Live 2020 Election Turnout Tracker